Social policy evaluations usually use classical statistical methods, which may, for example, compare outcomes for program and comparison groups and determine whether the estimated differences (or impacts) are statistically significant — meaning they are unlikely to have been generated by a program with no effect. This approach has two important shortcomings. First, it is geared toward testing hypotheses regarding specific possible program effects — most commonly, whether a program has zero effect. It is difficult with this framework to test a hypothesis that, say, the program’s estimated impact is larger than 10 (whether 10 percentage points, $10, or some other measure). Second, readers often view results through the lens of their own expectations. A program developer may interpret results positively even if they are not statistically significant — that is, they do not confirm the program’s effectiveness — while a skeptic might interpret with caution statistically significant impact estimates that do not follow theoretical expectations.

This paper uses Bayesian methods — an alternative to classical statistics — to reanalyze results from three studies in the Enhanced Services for the Hard-to-Employ (HtE) Demonstration and Evaluation Project, which is testing interventions to increase employment and reduce welfare dependency for low-income adults with serious barriers to employment. In interpreting new data from a social policy evaluation, a Bayesian analysis formally incorporates prior beliefs, or expectations (known as "priors"), about the social policy into the statistical analysis and characterizes results in terms of the distribution of possible effects, instead of whether the effects are consistent with a true effect of zero.

The main question addressed in the paper is whether a Bayesian approach tends to confirm or contradict published results. Results of the Bayesian analysis generally confirm the published findings that impacts from the three HtE programs examined here tend to be small. This is in part because results for the three sites are broadly consistent with findings from similar studies, but in part because each of the sites included a relatively large sample. The Bayesian framework may be more informative when applied to smaller studies that might not be expected to provide statistically significant impact estimates on their own. (author abstract)

The U.S. Department of Labor awarded $12 million in grants to nine organizations to provide employment services to previously incarcerated female adults and youth. The funds will be used by grantees to provide job training to lead to credentials in high-demand industries; employment preparation; mentoring; supportive services such as housing, and substance abuse and mental health treatment; family counseling; and assistance with parenting and child reunification. Helping this population gain employment is critical to providing the stability required for improving their educational and employment outcomes. This news release provides an overview of each grantee, including their location and award amount.

This report was authored by Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation (MDRC), and includes an evaluation of the New Communities Program (NCP). The NCP is a 10-year initiative to improve the conditions in distressed neighborhoods in Chicago. Authors explore the relationship between quality-of-life indicators over time in terms of safety, housing, and the local economy. Specifically, few of the indicators were strongly correlated at the same point in time, but they may occur before or after another indicator. For example, foreclosures were found to precede crime in these neighborhoods.

From Georgetown University's Center for Education and the Workforce, this report highlights the importance of certificates for workers in the labor market. Specifically, certificates recognize completion of a course of study in a specific field. Certificates can help advancement in the labor market because individuals with certificates earn 20 percent more than high school graduates without postsecondary education, on average. However, increased earnings vary based on a variety of factors, including the field of study. In this report, authors provide information on the population earnings certificates, the earnings return, and the institutions where they are earning certificates.

Through the U.S. Department of Labor's Homeless Veterans Reintegration Program, the Department awarded 90 grants totaling more than $20 million to fund job training and support services. The services will support the training of more than 11,000 veterans for civilian careers. The Program provides occupational, classroom and on-the-job training, as well as job search and placement assistance, including follow-up services.

This research report was authored through the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development. Authors discuss workforce trends and answer the question, "What would a 21st Century workforce system look like if we built it for today's economy, using today's tools and processes?" Currently, key trends include slow economic growth, changing labor markets, advances in information technology, demographic changes, and reduced funding. Using these trends, authors then describe where the workforce development system should be heading to support the economy.

This video is from the directors of the Office of Head Start and the Office of Child Care within the Administration for Children and Families. The directors discuss a joint letter that offers innovative approaches for making partnerships between Early Head Start and family child care work for Early Head Start grantees and other communities.

This is a newsletter through Child Trends that provides information on the latest research on children. 

The U.S. Government Accountability Office published this report on the TANF program. Currently, there are questions about the strength and breadth of the TANF safety net. Many eligible families are not receiving TANF cash assistance. Regarding TANF as a welfare-to-work program, the emphasis on work participation rates as a measure of State program performance has helped change the culture of State welfare programs to focus on moving families into employment. However, features of the work participation rates as currently implemented undercut their effectiveness as a way to encourage States to engage parents, including those difficult to serve, and help them achieve self-sufficiency. Finally, States have used TANF funds to support a variety of programs other than cash assistance as allowed by law.

This report details findings from the Transitional Jobs Reentry Demonstration, which was funded through the Joyce Foundation, JEHT Foundation, and the U.S. Department of Labor. The evaluation was conducted by MDRC, the Urban Institute, and the University of Michigan. The Demonstration included a randomized control trial of a transitional jobs program for men who had recently been released from prison. Findings include that the transitional jobs programs did not significantly affect recidivism within the 2-year follow-up period, and researchers point to a need to develop and enhance the transitional jobs model for serving this population.