Modeling the TANF Caseload in Colorado: Preliminary Findings from the Colorado Works Caseload Modeling Project

This presentation was given by the Lewin Group at the Eleventh Annual Welfare Research and Evaluation Conference that is sponsored through the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Planning, Research, and Evaluation. This research utilized statistical models to determine the effects that the economy and the population had on the size of the Colorado Works caseload from July 1999 to December 2007. Using regression analysis, researchers determined the impact on the caseload and were able to predict how changes might affect caseload size in the future.